Iowa State Game Report

Due to the incredibly horrible production quality of Fox College Sports (no HD feed) and the Big XII TV package (unable to get every conference game on TV)...charting the Iowa State debacle was a lost cause.

I got through 1.5 quarters and had already missing data on 8 plays because the game never showed the formation before the snap. At that point I cut my losses and am looking forward to having something for the Baylor next week.

As far as officiating goes, despite many Tech fans having much disdain for Randy Cristal, nothing stuck out to a badly missed/incorrect call at first watching. Granted my RC/CR consumption might've impacted my attentiveness...but we won't try and break that down in this post!

See ya next week...

Texas Game Officiating Report

***Disclaimer*** I don't claim to be an expert on officiating. I am merely somebody that actively enjoys officiating football and am pursuing to improve my ability. Reviewing game films of collegiate officials is one way that I can do that.

I noted 17 penalties and also made comments on 4 other items that stuck out to me. I’ll noted everything as “good call, marginal call, bad call.” My scorecard is as follows:

Good call – 15

Marginal Call – 4

Bad Call – 1

Good Calls of Note

- 3:34 1^st Quarter (Unnecessary Roughness) – Waddle should’ve been ejected from the game for throwing a punch. He was definitely given the benefit of the doubt. This could be considered a marginal call but in the heat of the moment it’s possible it was seen as a shove instead of a punch.

- 13:52 2^nd Quarter (Unnecessary Roughness) – TT #42 steps in and shoves a Texas player to the ground

- 9:58 2^nd Quarter (Facemask) – On the punt, DJ Johnson grabs the facemask of the Texas defender and yanks his head violently to get past him and down to the return man.

- 3:17 2^nd Quarter (Intentional Grounding) – This was not a screen play. Potts was under duress and Aaron Crawford was serving as a pass blocker. Potts did not throw the ball into an area where Crawford could reasonably make attempt to catch the ball.

- 12:57 3^rd Quarter (Running into Kicker) – The Texas player was laying under the leg of the punter and didn’t make direct contact with his leg after the kick. The punter fell over the Texas player when bringing his leg back down.

- :55 3^rd Quarter (Offensive Holding) – Could have been called as block in the back. Penalty was announced as #63 (who had a questionable takedown of Bird) but #64 came in and pushed Bird in the back while he was engaged with #63 and that lead to him falling down.

- 14:23 4^th Quarter (Unnecessary Roughness) – Will Ford walks into the backside of a play where players are standing around and shoves a Texas player to the ground.

Marginal Calls/Non-Calls of Note

- 12:50 4^th Quarter (Taunting) – Ford makes a hit (likely not on a defenseless receiver) and then stands over him and does something. Not enough information to make a determination if this was a good/bad call.

- 9:50 4^th Quarter (Offensive Pass Int) – Leong was serving as a downfield blocker on this play instead of a receiver. He continued to block his defender after the pass was thrown and one could reasonably assume that the defensive player could make a play on the ball (a key element in pass interference) that was thrown in their vicinity. A reverse endzone angle would be very helpful for seeing if this was a good/bad call.

- No time recorded 4^th Quarter – Block in the back by #4 was missed on Bird as he tried to tackle the punt returner. I only mark it was marginal because the return man went out of bounds within a second of Bird being hit in the back and at the same yard line. As such, I can understand why it wasn’t flagged.

- 3:44 4^th Quarter – The Texas defender made a great play on the ball but he might have been playing “through the back” of Leong which would result in DPI. I would need a better TV angle to determine if this was a good/bad call.

Bad Calls of Note

- 5:01 2^nd Quarter – You know exactly what non-call I’m referring to here. The H (who can’t see the drop) rules a catch by Mike Davis. However, the U crashes in on the play and is signaling no catch and pointing at the ground to properly “sell the call” by saying the ball hit the turf. Without any further explanation or discussion the catch is granted and Texas gets a first down.

This play was screwed up by the R for granting the first down despite the U strongly selling “no catch,” the replay booth for not taking a second look (by the way when was the last time a TV game has ZERO replays), and the Tech coaching staff for not challenging the play.

Charting on Texas...

I know this won’t be earth shattering news to anybody reading this blog but there is simply no good way to spin Texas Tech’s offensive performance vs Texas.

Consider these stats:

- 5 of 14 (35.7%) on passes thrown beyond 5 yards downfield.

- 2.8 yards/play gained.

- Only 2 of 16 run plays ever got outside the tackle box..

- Only 4 balls were thrown beyond 15 yards. The only one caught was for a 15 yard touchdown by Lyle Leong Jr .

Conclusions I reached about the Tech offense from charting the game:

- Potts strongly favors the right side of the field. 20 of 38 passes were thrown to his right and 30 of 38 were thrown over the middle or to his right.

- He was 6 of 8 for 30 yards on throws to his left. However 4 of those completions were on WR screen passes thrown under 5 yards downfield.

After looking at the breakdown of play calls, I must say that Greg Davis did an excellent job managing Garrett Gilbert in this game.

I say that because:

- Gilbert was very balanced between throws to his left (14) and his right (18).

- Gilbert threw 17 of 38 balls (44.7%) more than 5 yards downfield.

- Running plays were also very well balanced with 16 going to the left and 18 to the right. I wonder if this was done in part to keep Bront Bird even more confused at his MLB position.

Despite this great balance, there was a glaring weakness in Gilbert’s performance on Saturday.

He was an atrocious 4 of 18 (22%) on passes thrown to his right. At 41 yards of passing, that works out to an abysmal 2.27 yards/attempt. Gilbert was at 7.64 yards/attempt to the right and 13 yards/attempt over the middle. However, Davis kept letting him throw to his right side as 18 of his 38 passes went that direction.

To contrast, Taylor Potts was between 3.5 and 4.1 yards/attempt to the various parts of the field.

Texas Game Charting Spreadsheet

***note*** The game charting is on 2 separate pages of the same spreadsheet.

Bringing a blog back from the dead...

I started this blog a few years ago because I needed an outlet for all of the thoughts going through my head about Texas Tech football. Life went in a different direction and I found myself unable to write in the way that I wanted to so I stopped writing altogether.

I'm certainly not going to do anything nearly as ambitious as I did in the past. Instead, I'm going to focus on reviewing each game from a purely statistical perspective.

I'm pulling out the names and numbers of the players and simply looking at formations, types of plays, and the yards that they do or don't produce. If you're familiar with the work of Bob Sturm then you've seen him do this for the Cowboys/Jason Garrett in recent seasons.

I will also use my moderate knowledge of the rules of the game to look at each penalty called and give it a thumbs up/thumbs down. I'll try to explain what made a call good/bad and also point out if I see something that could've been officiated in a different way. I don't consider myself an expert in officiating the game. However, it is something that I have a developing love for and hope I can apply my experiences in as unbiased of a way as is possible for a fan that has a built-in bias towards Texas Tech.

To give you a small sampling of data...here is what I have on Tech by formation from Saturday: (for the record, my charting has 1 more play for 7 yards than what the box score shows. I'm assuming this has to do with how they counted a play with a penalty applied to it that I overlooked).

Formation	Count	Yards Gained	Yds/Play
S0	3	10	3.3
S1	40	157	3.9
S11	3	3	1.0
Total	55	151	2.7

The formations are:

S0 - 0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR
S1 - 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR
S11 - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
S2 - 2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR

**The S2 formation includes the 21 yards lost when the ball was snapped over Potts on the first play from scrimmage for Tech.

In the 9 plays run from the S2 formation you had the following occur:

- Snap over Potts head
- Intentional grounding on Potts
- Sticks sacked for a loss of 10
- Potts' INT over the middle in the 3rd quarter
- Detron on a WR sweep
- Motion used on 4 of 9 plays from this formation

Hopefully I'll get a little better with my html skills and learn how to align tables better as I progress in this endeavor.

I hope you enjoy that sample and I'll be back with my final breakdown of the game in the next day or two as time allows!

Where The Hell Is the Pass Rush Coming From in 2009?

Every college football pundit is quick to point out that Mike Leach is stuck with the unenviable task of replacing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. However, the issue being continually overlooked is where the heck is Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeill going to find a pass rush. He's charged with having to replace Brandon Williams, McKinner Dixon, and the 19 sacks that they took with them.

Who will Ruff turn to?

A converted defensive tackle.
A player who played in the "Joker" package almost exclusively in 2008.
A 2* JUCO player whose career best game consisted of two tackles (one assisted) at Texas A&M.
A local boy who has never played in a Big 12 game.

At first glance, that list is sure to inspire confidence.

But as Mr. Corso would say...

Not...so fast my friend!

Rajon Henley, a close friend of Brandon Williams (4th round draft pick of the Dallas Cowboys), has talked with him at length about the position switch and what Henley needs to do to get ready for the NFL. As a result, Henley has dropped at least 20 lbs, shaved over a tenth of his 40 time and by all accounts has made a very smooth transition to the outside.

The other three players referenced above are Daniel Howard, Brandon Sharpe, and Ryan Halliburton. Depending who you ask, Howard and/or Sharpe have been unstoppable at times during fall camp . Both have welcomed the increased playing time and responsibility that comes with replacing a pair of All-Big 12 players. Halliburton is coming along nicely as well but won't be asked to shoulder quite as much of a burden as Rajon's backup.

One player that I failed to mention is Brandon Sesay. One of the top JUCO prospects in the country when he signed in 2008, Sesay has continued to struggle both on the field as well as off it. He wasn't fully qualified until just before the season started last year and then failed to perform up to his abilities on a consistent basis once he stepped onto the gridiron.

By all accounts, he was starting to "get it" during spring practice and was going to be a nice compliment to Henley. Unfortunately, his lack of interest in going to class caught up to him yet again. He is still listed on the fall camp roster and no official announcement has been made regarding his status (both academic and athletic) with Texas Tech, but it doesn't look like we will see Mr. Sesay donning the red and black this fall.

Despite Sesay's loss, the Red Raiders still have a promising and experienced group of defensive ends suiting up on Satudays. The optimist in me hopes Henley logs eight sacks and nabs Second Team All-Big 12 honors. As a group, expect 18.5 sacks (down from 23.5) and a high level of energy from the defensive bookends this fall.

Crabtree 2.0 Or the No-Name Receiving Corps?

Every Texas Tech fan is waiting, hoping, and praying for the next Michael Crabtree to show up at the Jones this fall.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news; he's not in Lubbock and won't be this year.

However, that doesn't mean that the Air Raid isn't going to just as much of a nightmare for opposing coaches as it was with No. 5 in the lineup.

In fact, one could easily make the case that this is the most talented crop of pass catchers that Capt. Leach has ever put on the field.

Yesterday, I mentioned true freshman Eric Ward. He is a four-star recruit that was committed to Oklahoma before switching to Texas Tech. We are still 10 days away from the North Dakota game but it looks like he might be redshirted.

Think back to 2005. At that time it was inconceivable to think that the Red Raiders would be in a position talent-wise to redshirt an elite prospect, much less one who plays wide receiver.

Back to what you can expect to see this fall.

The Air Raid will again feature a QB that passes for 4,000+ yards. It will again feature eight or nine guys that catch 15 or more balls, gaining 100+ yards, and scoring at least one touchdown.

However, don't expect to see Detron Lewis or Ed Britton grabbing 95 balls for 1,110 yards and 12 TD's. They simply are not the difference makers that Crabtree was.

Nobody on this roster (or any other roster in FBS except for maybe Julio Jones) should be expected to deliver a Crabtree-esque performance.

I see the 2009 edition of the Air Raid being a virtual mirror of the 2005 group. Four players catching between 65 and 75 passes, scoring five touchdowns each, and collectively gaining over 3,000 yards.

If you want a sleeper to watch this fall, then check out Lyle Leong. He and Taylor Potts were arguably the most dynamic QB/WR duo in Texas HS Football in 2004 and 2005. Leong was 1st Team All-State and averaged 22 yards per catch as a senior at Abilene High.

Oh and one other thing...

The Crabtree 2.0 starter kit is on his way to Lubbock. His name is Kadron Boone of Ocala, Fla., and he will be in Lubbock June 1, 2010. Stay tuned...

Will there be any freshman making an impact this year?

I'm glad you asked...the answer is not only yes but ABSOLUTELY YES!!! Mike Leach hauled in arguably his most talented recruiting class to date (the 2010 class might just take that title if it continues developing) and we can expect to see quite a few of these newbies playing meaningful snaps this fall.

Pearlie Graves - This beast of a DT was one of the great surprises of Tech's 2009 recruiting class. Considered a long shot at best just a few days before National Signing Day, Graves faxed in his letter of intent to the Red Raiders early in the day and provided one of the biggest surprises of NSD. Since arriving in Lubbock in June, Graves has made an impression first in the weight room and now on the practice field during fall camp. We aren't totally sure just how much PT Graves will see this fall but he's likely the 5th or 6th DT in the rotation if they are going to skip a redshirt. His progression is especially important now that Rajon Henley is moving to DE this season. If Tech's defense is going to perform close to last year's squad, keeping a fresh DLine is essential and Graves will play a key role in ensuring that the drop off is minimal (if non-existent) when Whitlock, Jones, etc comes off the field. Expect 5-8 snaps/game.

D.J. Johnson - It's not every day that you see a kid go from playing private HS ball to earning playing time as a true freshman on a Big 12 team but that's exactly what D.J. Johnson has done. Every indication is that he will be in the rotation at CB behind Wall, Moore, etc. Expect 9-12 snaps/game.

Eric Ward - Another steal in recruiting, Ward quietly enrolled at Texas Tech last January after committing to Oklahoma. He showed flashes of greatness in the spring but also has a big learning curve to crack the two deep at wideout. While Tech would prefer to not play him, nothing definite has been announced so as I write this Ward is still in contention for the last outside WR spot with Rashad Hawk. If it were up to me, I'd rather see Ward get 5-10 snaps/game instead of hoping that Hawk will finally figure it out this fall. I hate throwing around the word upside...but Ward has it and Hawk hasn't shown anything to make one think that he's on the verge of a breakout season. Also, Ward can contribute on special teams. Expect 15-20 catches, 250 yards, and 3 TD's along with spot work at kick returner

Terrance Bullitt/Daniel Cobb/Will Ford - I'm lumping these three guys together. They are all similar in size, speed, and Rivals rating as recruits. It looks like two of the three will play. Early indications were that it would be Cobb and Ford but Coach Ruff said yesterday after practice that he can comfortably announce that Bullitt and Ford will not be redshirted. He did not make any mention of Cobb. Regardless of who plays this fall, I like the fact that these guys are in the running for playing time right out of the gate. It tells me that 1) Tech is upgrading in talent on the defensive side of the ball and 2) that Ruff is going to put the best players on the field whether that are true freshman or 5th year seniors. Expect 15-18 snaps/game for each player that doesn't redshirt.

Eric Stephens - I tabbed Eric as the star of the recruiting class back in February and he appears to be all that and more so far. When Baron Batch went down with an injury, it gave Stephens the opportunity to take first team reps in practice and he has made the most of his opportunity. If nothing else, he's demonstrated that he's a viable backup to Batch and Jeffers (instead of Crawford being the 3rd man) and that he just might be the best punt returner on the roster. While it would be great to redshirt him, it doesn't look like that luxury is available with Batch's injury history and Crawford unable to consistently practice w/o having to wear a no-contact jersey. This doesn't mean that I think he's going to start taking significant carries away from Batch or Jeffers...but he'll get more than was originally planned. Expect 25-30 carries, 10 receptions, 300 total yards, and at least 2 jaw dropping TD's. He will also see time at punt returner.

2009 Preseason Blog Schedule

2009 Preseason Blog Schedule

I'm alive and (more importantly) Flags Over Raiderland is making a return appearance to the Tech County blogosphere. Here is the preseason blog schedule leading up to the start of the 2009 season next Saturday (we're going to ignore the spare schedule of games on Thursday and Friday unless you really want to get my thoughts on ND State @ Iowa State or USC @ NC State).

August 25 - Who are the true freshman that will play this fall?
August 26 - Will we see a Crabtree 2.0 or a more balanced receiving corps?
August 27 - Who replaces Brandon Williams and McKinner Dixon?
August 28 - Who fills the CB spot opposite Jamar Wall?
August 29 - How will the reloaded OL look and play in 2009?
August 30 - What should you expect from Taylor Potts?
August 31 - Will the 2009 run game resemble that of 2008 or 2006?
September 1 - Who will come out of nowhere (non-freshman) to make an impact?
September 2 - Which ranked team(s) will Tech upset this fall?
September 3 - Off, Def, ST, Frosh, and Coach MVP's for 2009
September 4 - 2009 Season Prediction
September 5 - Week 1 Picks ATS

2009 Recruiting Class Thoughts

Well my day is pretty much over at 9:30 (at least the work part of it) so I thought I'd do a little wrap up on recruiting.

Star of the class: A lot of people will point towards 4 Star DT Pearlie Graves as the biggest get for the Red Raiders. However, I'm going to go in another direction and take Eric Stephens, RB Mansfield Timberview. Initially committed to Minnesota, Stephens spent a long time looking at Tech (including multiple visits to Lubbock) before finally switching to the good guys after the Texas game. The reason I'm excited about him is that the pipeline at running back is WELL stocked for the next few years with Batch, Jeffers, and now Stephens. As we all saw this year, the emergence of the running game in the Air Raid had as much to do with this team's success as anything else. Stephens is rated by Rivals as the 3rd best RB in space and ESPN notes that he's arguably the most elusive back in this country this year with an ability to reach top speed in a few steps. Most importantly, he is by all accounts a great character kid who takes care of himself in the class and will represent Texas Tech very well. If the Red Raiders are to continue having 10 win seasons in the future, Eric Stephens will be a big reason for that success.

Sleeper of the Class: Derrick Mays, ATH Killeen Shoemaker. I debated whether to put him here or at Immediate Impact because there's a VERY good chance that Mays is on the field come August. He has low 4.4 speed and runs a sub 21 second 200m dash. If there's one thing that this team is missing...it's speed across the field (see Ole Miss game for further explanation). While Mays will likely end up playing CB in a few years for Tech, expect to see him returning kicks and punts in 2009 along with the occassional designed play for him on offense. Leach showed some wrinkles last year (Crabtree and EMo taking snaps, Harrell running a zone read, the play action pass to the FB in goalline situations) so I wouldn't put it past him to find a way to get the ball in the hands of Mays next year.

Immediate Impact: One player is already on campus as a spring enrollee and that is Eric Ward, WR Wichita Falls Rider. Ward literally jumped ship on the Sooners at the 11th hour, visiting and subsequently enrolling at Texas Tech in a matter of a few days as classes were starting back up this semester. Not only is Ward the highest rated WR of this class, he is already working out with the team and learning the various receiver roles in Leach's scheme. Expect to see him take over the H slot formerly filled by Amendola and Morris and bring a new level of athleticism to the position that hasn't been there in previous years.

Biggest Project: Myles Wade, DT unattached. Hard to think that I could label a guy that was an Army All-American and Rivals 100 member in 2007 as a "project." For those who aren't familiar with Mr. Wade, you are truly missing out an inspirational story of a young man that's already dealt with a lot in his life. Committed to Oregon out of high school, he was unable to qualify and Oregon placed him at a JUCO in Yuma, AZ. However, after playing there in 2007, Wade was then asked to sit out of competitive football in 2008 so as to preserve his eligibility (he has 3 years to play 3) for his eventual return to Oregon He spent the fall at a local college going to school and working out every day at 6AM with a trainer while also taking care of his terminally ill mother (she passed away in late December I believe). Unfortunately, Mike Bellotti and his staff pulled the plug on Myles this fall and said that he was no longer a fit for their program. Enter Coach Ruff and Texas Tech. They started talking with Myles and finding out that this is a kid who has done everything that's been asked of him in hopes of getting to the Division 1 level. Myles finally decided to visit in late January. After he left Lubbock, Ruff and Leach practically followed him back up to Portland to meet his father and sister. After a lengthy and emotional in-home visit, Myles committed to Texas Tech. I for one will be rooting like hell for this kid to make it. He's been through a lot to get to where he is today and it's hard not to applaud a kid for doing everything possible to improve his situation despite the obstacles that kept piling up in front of him.

Now that you've read his story...let me state the obvious for why I listed him as the biggest project. Yes he's got plenty of rust that he's going to have to work off before he'll be ready to play Big 12 football (insert Dan Hawkins voice.) However, he's my "biggest project" because if and when he gets to Lubbock, gets fully qualified, and gets himself adjusted to football at the highest collegiate level, he gives the Red Raiders an explosiveness on the interior d-line that they've never had before. Combined with Pearlie Graves, they could form one of the most formidable run stopping duos in the conference for the next few years.

Don't Get Too Excited: James Scott, LB Coldspring (HS), TX. While he certainly passes the eye test at 6'3" 220" w/ 4.5 speed and the limited footage on him is very impressive...he's got a long ways to go before he'll qualify. It's likely that Tech will place him in a JUCO and keep in touch with him for the next two years and try to get him in the fold after that.

Glad to be back in the world of blogging...have a good weekend everybody!

Don't Stop Believin...

Last weekend was rough...but at least it was quick and painless. Last week was 5-2 so I'm now at 30-20 ATS. Time to finish up the regular season on a winning note:

Virginia Tech 21
Virginia 24 (+7 or maybe even the +250 if you're feeling crazy!!!)

Missouri 42
Kansas 31 (+16)

Georgia 21
Georgia Tech 17 (+8)

Houston 48 (-3)
Rice 31

Texas Tech 42
Baylor 28 (-22)

Florida 27
Florida State 17 (+16.5)

Alabama 23
Auburn 13 (+14.5)

Oklahoma 38 (-7.5)
Oklahoma State 28

Oregon State 31
Oregon 34 (+3)