Texas Tech and other New Years Day Picks

Greetings from the W Dallas this morning.  This time last year, I was on a blind date to the Cotton Bowl with the girl that is now my fiance.  A year later we find ourselves sitting in our hotel room staring at the "carnage" (actually it's pretty clean) left from hosting 30+ people here last night.  Somehow we survived...everybody that could got home safely...and we only had 1 broken champagne glass.  Can't ask for a better evening! :) 

Gator Bowl (Texas Tech vs Virginia) - If you're reading this blog then you know which way this pick is going.  I don't mind going against Tech if we're definitely not the superior team, but in a game such as this I think it comes down to matchups.  Tech is far superior offensively while Virginia has a better run defense and a great edge rusher in Chris Long.  For a more detailed breakdown by player...check out this work from Seth over at DTN.  It gives you great statistical info on the players we'll see out there for both teams today.  Ok...gotta speed up my writing a bit.

Texas Tech 38

Virginia 27

Outback Bowl (Tennessee vs Wisconsin) - Tennessee played well in their last outing vs LSU.  Anybody that can force LSU to play their game is doing something right.  That said, Phil Fulmer is still their coach so count on a few stupid in-game decisions.  Wisconsin has underachieved (by Vegas standards at least) all season long.  Playing the Fulmer card...give me the Badgers.

Wisconsin 24

Tennessee 16

Cotton Bowl (Arkansas vs Mizzou) - I'm really looking forward to this game...or at least until about 12PM when I'll switch to the Gator Bowl.  McFadden will play (it was never in question IMO) and Mizzou has a chance to rebound from the beating they received from OU.  Given all the hype about offense, I think this one will stay fairly low scoring.  A 10:30 start isn't something teams in the Big 12 and SEC are used to...so rust will be heavy for at least a quarter.

Mizzou 20

Arkansas 17 

Capital One Bowl (Michigan vs Florida) - Poor Michigan.  They're playing Lloyd Carr's last game vs an extremely talented (and young) Florida team looking to gain momentum heading into 2008.  Tebow is out to prove that the Heisman wasn't a fluke for him and this is his first chance to prove himself.  However, I like Lloyd Carr...so let's send him out a winner!

Michigan 27

Florida 24

Rose Bowl (USC vs Illinois) - USC...USC...USC.  Hmm...any wonder where I'm going with this pick?  Illinois has some nice, young talent with Juice Williams and stud freshman Arrelious Benn.  But yeah...their talent is just nice and not exactly prime time material.  USC's 2nd and 3rd string guys could start at almost every position in Champaign.  Throw in that the Rose Bowl is all but a home game for the Trojans (and Pasadena may very well be their new home stadium VERY soon)...it's hard to give the Illini much of a chance in this one.

USC 41

Illinois 24

Sugar Bowl (Hawaii vs Georgia) - Hawaii can score...and score a lot.  However, they have absolutely no defense and it should be exposed by Georgia.  The only way they win this game is if Georgia doesn't care and throws up a dud in the first half.  The Warriors aren't known for playing well on the mainland (see OT win vs San Jose St for recent evidence) either and New Orleans is a LOOONG way from Honolulu.

Georgia 49

Hawaii 38

Sorry it took so long to get these posted...enjoy!!!

Bowl picks for this weekend

Since I don't know if I'll be by my computer this weekend...here are picks on the games that I'll be watching:

Texas Bowl (Houston, TX) TCU vs Houston - I'm not a TCU fan...though their offense started showing signs of life late in the year. However, the highly touted defense has been less than spectacular and Tommy Blake has dropped from 1st Round to a late 2nd day draft pick after reportedly going off the deep end mentally. I'm biased towards Houston because Abilene product Case Keenum is their starting QB. That said...Art Briles is gone and that places some big ? marks on offense. Houston's defense still can't stop anyobdy. I don't know if they'll win...but they'll cover 6.5 points. If anything, I would take the over in this game as 57.5 is a ridiculously low number.

TCU 38
Houston 34

Meineke Car Care Bowl (Charlotte, NC) Connecticut vs Wake Forest - This is essentially a home game for the Demon Deacons (80 miles). The Deacs are coached by one of the most respected yet underrated coaches in the country in Jim Grobe. He does more with less talent than any coach this side of Hawaii, and he's doing it in the ACC. Other than their stumble against Clemson, their other 3 losses were by a combined 14 points to @ BC, Nebraska, and @ Virginia. Riley Skinner is and 2nd year starter (lead the Deacs to the ACC title as a frosh) and could turn into the ACC's next Matt Ryan over the next 2 years. UConn beat a bunch of terrible teams (Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron, Syracuse, and Pitt) and were fortunate to get the bounces/calls against South Florida and Louisville. Cincy and WVU cleaned them out late in the season. Yes...I'm a homer in this game...but I just don't think UConn has what it takes. Take Wake FoFo (-1.5) and the under of 47.5

Wake Forest 23
UConn 20

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX) Penn State vs Texas A&M - The Aggies were terrible under Fran in bowl games...when they made it to one. They're also 1-6 in their last 7 bowl appearances, including a 24-0 loss to Penn State in their last Alamo Bowl appearance. However, their offense looked very good against Texas and rumor has it that Fran wasn't the one calling the plays but rather OC Les Koennig was. Look for the Aggies to continue to open up the field by allowing McGee to throw the ball some. Even though I'm down on the Big 10 as a conference, I'll take the Nittany Lions to win but not cover as this game barely goes over 52 points.

Penn State 31
Texas A&M 27

Independence Bowl (Shereveport, LA) Alabama vs Colorado - This game means a lot to Alabama and Nick Saban. A loss and the Tide faithful will be up in arms over a losing season. A win and a good recruiting year (current class ranked #2 in the nation) will buy Saban some time in 2008. Colorado is a nice team and Dan Hawkins is making some dents in recruiting CA and TX. This game doesn't mean near as much to them. Long and short...CU would like to win but Bama is DESPERATE for a win. Bama (-3.5) wins but can't quite cover in this shootout.

Alabama 34
Colorado 31

I'll be back with more next week. Time to track down the story behind the Julio Jones committing to Texas Tech rumor that has been circulating the internet all day. While that would be nice...I have a feeling we won't know anything until he visits Tech just before signing day.