Bowl Scenarios

There are 2 possible scenarios for the Red Raiders this bowl season; the Gator Bowl or the Alamo Bowl. I guess there is always the off chance that the Cotton or Holiday could break tradition and chose Tech…but it won’t happen so we won’t consider it as an option. Here is breakdown of what has to take place in the next 2 weeks and where that will land Tech.

Gator Bowl

First and foremost, if the Big 12 lands 2 teams in the BCS then Tech will end up in the Gator Bowl as the #5 team in the conference (a spot that they have locked up). They end up here because 2 teams go to the Fiesta (Big 12 champ) and another BCS bowl (at-large spot…must be Top 14 in Final BCS Rankings). Then the #3 team goes to the Cotton, #4 to the Holiday…and Tech makes a New Years Day bowl in Jacksonville. The most likely scenario is this:

- Kansas/Mizzou winner beats Oklahoma for the Big 12 Championship and earns automatic bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
- Texas (who doesn’t make the championship game and lost to BlowU earlier this year) will be chosen as an at-large team because (coming off a victory over A&M) they’ll be 10-2, on a 6-game winning streak, and likely ranked in the Top 10 in the BCS standings. This makes them the most likely choice as the BCS bowls typically shy away from taking at-large teams that lost their last game.

As a side note, the first ride of the Masked Rider was at the 1954 Gator Bowl. You can watch a Youtube video HERE of that famous ride!

Alamo Bowl

This one gets a bit trickier and isn’t as likely to happen…though Tech’s win on Saturday could actually “improve” their chances of falling to the Alamo Bowl instead. However, I would prefer (for selfish reasons) that Tech go here so I can go to this game in person instead of watching on TV. Plus the possibility of playing Michigan, Penn State, or Wisconsin looks a lot better to me than Clemson/Virginia in the Gator. I wish that Wake Forest could somehow be in the Gator but it won’t happen. The most likely scenario is this:

- Oklahoma/Texas wins the Big 12 Championship and earns the automatic bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
- BOTH Kansas and Mizzou are passed over as at-large teams. If Kansas gets to the Big 12 Championship, I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody still takes them as an at-large as long as they don’t get blown out by OU/Texas. While they have no football tradition, they have a great basketball tradition and typically travel very well.
- This puts the Big 12 Champ in the Fiesta, #2 in the Cotton, #3 in the Holiday, #4 in the Gator, and #5 in the Alamo.

There is another scenario that puts TT in the Alamo Bowl. If the Gator decides not to take a Big 12 team and instead chooses to take a Big East school (likely UConn)…then Tech would end up in the Alamo Bowl as the #5 pick (assuming 2 go to the BCS) or the Insight Bowl is only 1 team makes the BCS.

Good times in the Lbk...

Had an awesome night...tired and have to drive back to Dallas tmrw. I got my camera back so I'll get some good shots of the game and ensuing post game fun posted when I can (still don't have my laptop up and running). In the mean time...enjoy this photo. I call it...Micheal Crabtree, professional BA!!!

I'm removing the flags from the banner...

I've decided to remove the flags from the banner for now. As we all know, this season essentially comes down to these two games. With both, you're 9-3 and will end up in the Holiday, Gator, or maybe even Cotton Bowl. Win 1, you're likely in the Holiday or Gator (assuming the Gator takes a Big 12 team this year). Win neither game, and you're hoping the Alamo wants a 7-5 team to take on Penn State or Purdue. This quote from Graham Harrell earlier this week sums up the situation:

"We've had a whole year, the whole season just about, to get ready,'' quarterback Graham Harrell said. "It'll be two fun games - get to go down to Austin and then OU, ranked where they are right now, is going to come here the next week, so we're looking forward to the challenge.''

That's it folks. No beating around the bush. Forget about the annual Aggot beating, the blowouts over Conference USA and the ridiculous numbers GH and Crabs put up, and the heartbreaking/depressing/demoralizing losses to Mizzou and Colorado. Win these two games...and the season is a success and momentum is squarely in the corner of Texas Tech heading into 2008. Lose both, and it's the same old story we're used to. The fair weather fans will gripe even louder that Leach is the problem (boy do they not know anything), that Graham is a no-talent whiner (true...but he's also the most prolific QB is Texas schoolboy history), and that the defense is weak (what do you expect when they have to practice against Leach's offense? You can't let them loose in practice or you won't have any receivers on Saturdays). Also, the rumors about Leach leaving for a bigger program will grow even louder...though I suspect that happens regardless of the outcome of the next two games. It's game time kids...get ready! Back with more football stuff later...

Friday morning picks

DISCLAIMER: The following picks are merely for entertainment purposes only. In no way does this blog or it's author condone or approve of gambling on sports, NCAA or otherwise (damn Bodog won't post the Tech/UTEP line this week...grrr). That being said...enjoy and feel free to comment!

#16 Nebraska (-9) @ Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons were lead by an impressive defense last year on their way to winning a school record 11 games and the ACC Championship. This year, they're replacing 7 guys from that defense and while the offense is improved...their defense is nowhere near last year's caliber. Nebraska runs a similar offense to Boston College, who put up 38 on the Deacs last week. Not exactly a blowout...but the Huskers should win this one comfortably.

Nebraska 31
Wake Forest 14

Miami (+11) @ #6 Oklahoma - Don't get too excited about the Canes just yet because they had a convinving win against a pitiful Marshall team last week. They still have their usual NFL-caliber players on defense but their offense isn't that improved last year. There's a reason that Kirby Freeman (Brownwood, TX), ended up at the U...he wasn't highly recruited by Texas schools. Everybody in the Big 12 South got their first sight of the highly touted DeMarco Murray last week...and his debut struck 4 years of fear through the hearts of the whiny orange in Austin. With Allen Patrick back this week for Sooners...they don't even have to worry about throwing the ball if they don't want to with him and Murray running the ball. Sooners in a rout!!!

Oklahoma 42
Miami 14

#22 Boise State (-3) @ Washington - This looks like a sucker bet...but I'm going to take the bait. Had the Huskies, lead by Soph Jake Locker at QB, not blown out Syracuse (one of the worst teams in the country) on national TV...then we'd be looking at a double digit spread for the Broncos. Locker is going to be a good QB in the Pac-10 for years to come, but this game will be a good test for him and the Huskies. Willingham is turning the corner up there...but he still has a ways to go. Don't expect a blowout, but Boise State should win this one by a safe margin and not have to dip into their bag of tricks.

Boist State 24
Washington 14

#22 TCU (+9) @ #7 Texas - This is a tough one to predict. TCU has one of the best defenses in the country, lead by All-American Tommy Blake. If Blake plays (I won't get into that mess) then the Frogs have a great chance to pull off the upset in Austin. If he doesn't, it will give Colt McCoy a lot more time in the pocket and that's never a good thing, even for a defense as good as TCU's. On offense, the Horned Frogs don't pose too much of a threat...even with the Horns glaring holes in the secondary. TCU's best chance is to connect on 2 or 3 big passes and turn them into points. Don't know if the Frogs will win this one...but it's sure going to keep everybody in Austin on their toes until the buzzer goes off at the end. I'll say this one ends up in OT with Texas pulling out the W but not covering the spread. Take TCU and the points.

Texas 23
TCU 20

#9 Virginia Tech (+11) @ #2 LSU - To the untrained eye, this might look like a HUGE sucker bet begging for you to take Va Tech. (Since Gameday will be in Baton Rouge on Saturday)...NOT...so fast my friend! (Thanks Lee). VT will struggle on offense and Glennon will wilt under the heat, humdity, and noise that comes with playing at Death Valley. The Hokies best shot at winning is giving the ball to Brandon Ore 30 times and hoping he can run for 150 yards and wear down the LSU defense. If they can't control the clock and the field...then it's going to be a miserable night in Baton Rouge for the boys from Blacksburg. Matt Flynn isn't the second coming of Peyton Manning...but he's good enough to avoid turnovers and keep moving the offense into the endzone (7 of 7 last week with 6 TD's) while allowing their defensive pressure to overwhelm their opponent. Geaux Tigers!

LSU 31
Virginia Tech 10