I'm removing the flags from the banner...

I've decided to remove the flags from the banner for now. As we all know, this season essentially comes down to these two games. With both, you're 9-3 and will end up in the Holiday, Gator, or maybe even Cotton Bowl. Win 1, you're likely in the Holiday or Gator (assuming the Gator takes a Big 12 team this year). Win neither game, and you're hoping the Alamo wants a 7-5 team to take on Penn State or Purdue. This quote from Graham Harrell earlier this week sums up the situation:

"We've had a whole year, the whole season just about, to get ready,'' quarterback Graham Harrell said. "It'll be two fun games - get to go down to Austin and then OU, ranked where they are right now, is going to come here the next week, so we're looking forward to the challenge.''

That's it folks. No beating around the bush. Forget about the annual Aggot beating, the blowouts over Conference USA and the ridiculous numbers GH and Crabs put up, and the heartbreaking/depressing/demoralizing losses to Mizzou and Colorado. Win these two games...and the season is a success and momentum is squarely in the corner of Texas Tech heading into 2008. Lose both, and it's the same old story we're used to. The fair weather fans will gripe even louder that Leach is the problem (boy do they not know anything), that Graham is a no-talent whiner (true...but he's also the most prolific QB is Texas schoolboy history), and that the defense is weak (what do you expect when they have to practice against Leach's offense? You can't let them loose in practice or you won't have any receivers on Saturdays). Also, the rumors about Leach leaving for a bigger program will grow even louder...though I suspect that happens regardless of the outcome of the next two games. It's game time kids...get ready! Back with more football stuff later...

Mike Leach said it best...(A&M game thoughts)

(from Saturday's post game press conference)

"I think the energy has picked up," Leach said. "Our team is starting to realize that it takes all the components working together to be a good team."

I can't agree more with this thought. While the offense did a great job making adjustments based what A&M did defensively (and then just flat out imposing their will upon the Aggies) it was again the Tech defense that defined the tone of this game. Once they showed the Ags (and the Tech offense) that they weren't going to be pushed around into another shootout with a Big 12 team, the game was essentially over by the middle of the 2nd quarter. A&M gained just under half of their total yards (42% to be precise) on the first 2 drives. They had two more drives where they moved the ball well but they ended in a missed FG (2nd quarter) and a turnover on downs (4th quarter). Great job offense...but the game balls start and end with the defense.

Yes I actually made it this far without saying anything about MC. I think this picture (from DTN) takes care of that for me:



One other enjoyable quote from Saturday, from DC Ruffin McNeill:

"They probably had a little bit too much to drink," McNeill said, chuckling. "I love our [fans], but they were chanting my name, a big ol' guy? An ol' school, half-bald guy? They must have been talking about a different Ruffin."

I've been working on a deeper look into Graham's passing numbers in my (likely futile) attempt to more accurately project his end of season statistics. I should be finished with it this afternoon unless these storms knock out the power for a bit.

Ramblings on the Iowa State game...

Well I made it home from Lubbock just before 10PM on Sunday night...so you can imagine that my mind wasn't on writing about the game just yet. Yesterday about the only thing Tech/A&M related was the Vick Em shirt incident...and I started to post it multiple times but decided (along with many others in TT blog land) that it's received enough publicity and continuing to publish it would do no good. Then last night...we were all witness to this:

So now that the dust has settled here in my world...and I can write on my thoughts from Saturday. To preface this...we only stayed for just a bit beyond halftime before going back to tailgate and watch Florida/LSU so I didn't see anything beyond the first drives of the 2nd half...though we did listen to much of the game until the starters came out. I'll just write this out in bullet points...

- When was the last time the general consensus was that the defense outplayed the offense? It was very refreshing to see in person the changes I had read were taking place the last few weeks. On a consistent basis, receivers were hit when they caught the ball. The thing that excited me the most was our defense started gang tackling and actually driving guys backwards on multiple occassions. I'm hard pressed to think of a time when we've seen that level of aggression and drive from the defense under the former regime.

- While the last few years have been a bit different...the offense has re-established the Coach Leach standard of "We expect to score every time we have the ball" and it is almost a letdown for fans when the offense has to punt. I know it's hard to believe...but it's reality that teams do punt sometimes!

- Michael Crabtree continues to impress everybody who sees him. For me this week, it was his explosiveness the first few steps after catching a ball. I don't know why, but he always seems to find a way to get yards after the catch. My motto when Crabtree catches a pass is, "It's like Christmas 10 times a game. Every time he gets the ball you better be ready for a surprise!"

- After all of the new uni combinations we've seen this year, the red/red was kind of a letdown for homecoming. I'm still holding out for a red/black combo of some kind so maybe we'll see it against A&M this Saturday!

- If you get bored in the next few days and want to read a lot of things that don't make too much sense...head on over to the TexAgs forums to see what things they have come up with this time around. My favorite comments are when they talk about Tech being some barren, flatland. I'm sorry...but since when did College Station become a booming metropolis with rolling hills???

With all the talk about MC and his charge towards the NCAA record books...many are overlooking the phenomenal numbers the Graham Harrell is putting up. Right now, his numbers are superior to what Kingsbury did in 02 and on pace with what Symons did in 03. We'll look more into this later...

Crabtree the superhuman!!!

Another game for Texas Tech...another 100+ yd game for Crabtree. After 5 games, here are his numbers:

60 catches
920 yards
14 TD's

A few points about his current production:
- The 14 TD's is a school record, breaking the mark of 13 TD's set by Jarrett Hicks in 2004 and equaled by Joel Filani last season.
- 14 TD's also ties the NCAA Freshman record, currently held by Jabar Gaffney (Florida, 2000), Mike Williams (USC, 2002), and Davone Bass (Hawaii, 2005). Expect this one to belong to Crabtree by 6:45 PM next Saturday.
- 920 receiving yards leads all NCAA receivers...by 241 yards. He has gained 35% more than the #2 wideout.
- 60 catches also leads all NCAA receivers...by 15 catches. Danny Amendola is 3rd at 44 catches.
- 14 TD's is 5 more TD's than the next closest WR and double that of the next closest Big 12 WR (Malcolm Kelly, Blow U, 7 TD's)

Here's the fun (and scary) part of Crabtree's production this year:

- He's currently projecting to these numbers:

156 catches
2392 yards
36 TD's

The NCAA D1 records are:

142 catches (Manny Hazard, Houston, 1989)
2,060 yards (Trevor Insley, Nevada, 1999)
27 TD's (Troy Edwards, La Tech, 1998)

While it's unlikely to assume that his production will continue at the same level against Big 12 opponents...if it did then he would own all NCAA single-season records as a freshman!!! Also, the NCAA record for catches by a freshman is 98 by Taurean Henderson of Texas Tech in 2002. Assuming he played out his eligibility, here's where he would project to over 4 13-game seasons (12 games + bowl game) with current 4-year NCAA record in parentheses.

624 catches (316 catches, Taylor Stubblefield, Purdue 01-04)
9,568 yards (5,005 yds, Trevor Insley, Nevada 96-98
146 TD's (50 TD's, Troy Edwards, La Tech 96-98)

Obviously, these projections are very far reaching at this point...but it wouldn't be totally out of the question to see Crabtree at least approaching many NCAA career records by the end of the 2008 season. The outlook is bright for the Red Raiders offense and Michael Crabtree over the next few years. With the Big 12 in chaos mode after BlowU and Texas both lost last week (remember that the loser of the RRR game this week will start conference 0-2)...there's no need to look ahead to 2008 just yet. However...I'll go ahead and drop in a friendly note that 10 of 11 starters will return in 08 with Danny Amendola being the lone starting senior.

I'll be back later with some stats on Graham Harrell and a look ahead to his projections.

Rice Preview

Rice (0-2, 0-0)

#4 (aka #116 overall)

in ESPN's Bottom 10

vs

Texas Tech (2-0, 0-0) -28

#30 in USA Today/Coaches Poll

Sept 15, 2007

2:00 PM

Rice Stadium

Fox Sports Southwest

Rice Notes

Let's face the facts. The Owls suck. They aren't any good. They let Baylor...yes that's right...the BAYLOR BEARS of Waco, TX...put up 42 points, 500+ yards, and 6 passing TD's. This is the same Bear team that put up a goose egg the previous week against TCU. Now they face Texas Tech, who is averaging 479 yds passing and 47 points/game. This doesn't bode well for the Owls. Their best, and only, chance to beat the spread (I won't even consider the option of them winning the game) is to run the ball and keep the Tech offense off the field and under 35 points. All-American WR Jarrett Dillard (above) will likely see constant double (and sometimes triple) coverage from the Tech defense. The downside for Rice...Dillard is their only weapon and teams have been able to slow him down enough (67 ypg, 0 TD's this year). At QB they feature Chase Clement, a fine QB from San Antonio, who has shown improved accuracy this season. However, his completion % is up because he's having to throw to his check routes as Dillard is covered and they don't have any other deep threats. See his 0 passing TD's so far this year for further proof. While the Owls showed great progress last year until ex-HC Todd Graham (Tulsa HC) and ex-OC Major Applewhite (Alabama OC)...those coaches are gone and the team is left trying to find a scheme and identity that works for them. This year...that identity is non-existent and in turn they are one of the worst teams in NCAA Div 1. I wonder how bad App State could beat Rice.

Texas Tech Notes

Glad to see that Tech will be back on TV this weekend. This should give Harrell and Crabtree (is the slogan I Love Crabs catching on yet?) a chance to display their budding chemistry (and Crabtree's stellar athletic ability) to the rest of Texas and the surrounding territories again. Defensively, this game should help build confidence before next week's shootout in Stillwater with the Pokes. Rice is definitely not a high-powered offense but Tech still needs to contain Dillard and that will essentially shut down the Owls from the start. I'm looking for 3 things out of the Defense...and they're below in the "Keys to Victory."

The Owls' "Keys to Victory"

1. Get the ball to Dillard early and often. He is the only weapon that poses a legitimate threat against the Red Raider defense.

2. Establish the running game early to control the clock and keep the Air Raid on the sidelines. A decent running threat will create opportunities downfield in the passing game. Plus, if Tech can't get the ball...they can't score. It's that simple.

3. Pray for a turnover miracle from above. Maybe a few Graham Harrell passes get batted up in the air early in the game and the Owls can catch them and take them back for a Pick 6 (see Mizzou game last year). Once the turnovers start...sometimes they don't stop.

The Red Raiders' "Keys to Victory"

1. Remember that you're the better team....so play like it. Stick to the game plan and trust your abilities.

2. Don't rush the offense and constantly look for a big play. The passing attack will wear down their defense and create PLENTY of opportunities for 5 yd passes to become 50 yd TD's. Take what they give you and put it to use for 60 minutes.

3. Be aggressive in rush defense (if only the DC would call a blitz) and play with controlled, selective aggression in the secondary. Trying to force the big play last week twice turned a 5 yd catch into a 40+ yd gain for the opponent. Limit their YAC (Yards After Catch) and you'll do just fine.

PREDICTION

Tech starts slow but will have this game under control by the middle of the 2nd Quarter. The spread is only 28 points...so if you're the betting type...keep this one in mind (and see my fearless and useless picks to come later today).

Texas Tech 55

Rice 10

UTEP Game Recap

Texas Tech 45
UTEP 31

Well I might be the only one that says this...but the score made this game look a lot closer than it really was. UTEP took advantage of a few turnovers in the 1st quarter and the Tech defense decided to wait until almost halftime to show up at Jones. That being said...the offense looked great again...poor Rice is about to take a severe beating this week!!! Now onto the grades...

Quarterbacks (A) - Graham Harrell was the only one to play in this one and he put out another outstanding performance. He set a record for completions at 48 and had another 400+ yd performance and minimized his mistakes (75% completion). He did throw 1 INT but it seemed like 1) he was trying to throw it to a spot that only Crabtree (if anybody at all) could reach it. It's debateable as to whether or not MC even saw the pass so I'll let this one go as an unusual circumstance once the game was all but over.

Running Backs (C+) - For future reference...the C+ grade will mean average. You did nothing to hurt the team but nothing that stood out and made a difference in the game. That's what we saw from Shannon Woods and Kobey Lewis on Saturday. 5 yds/carry is nice but there wasn't a single explosive run. Woods had 5 catches for 10 yards but 1 of those catches was for 9 yards.

Wide Receivers (A) - Overall, we saw improvement from this group vs last week. There were amazing catches (L.A. Reed going Superman for 29 yards), outsanding performances (Crabtree with 15 catches and constantly making guys miss), and guys (Amendola, Morris, and Britton) getting the tough yards across the middle to keep moving the chains.

Offensive Line (B+) - Another solid performance and for the most part they kept Graham free from punishment. While it would be hard to duplicate last week's performance in terms of pass protection, it was another admirable job by this inexperienced group. They still have room to improve in the running game though. They need to do a better job of holding their blocks longer to give the backs a better opportunity to get to the 2nd level.

Defensive Line (D+) - F in the first half...C in the 2nd half. UTEP put up just shy of 300 yards IN THE FIRST HALF!!! Vittatoe was able to find receivers and scramble at will with no pressure from the front four. These games are supposed to be prepare the team for Big 12 play but this game was a huge step backwards for this group. They started stunting some in the 2nd half and I felt this change helped slow down UTEP in the 2nd. It worked for now...but it's not going to surprise a good Big 12 OL.

Linebackers (C-) - Their play was definitely below average...but as I've said beore I don't think it's entirely because of their lack of ability. No they aren't the fastest guys out there but they do a good job of tackling once they make contact. However, SOMETHING needs to be done to create pressure on the QB. I know I'm probably beating a dead horse because the Def Coord (Setencich) isn't going to start calling a lot of blitzes but geez...1 blitz per drive would be A-M-A-Z-I-N-G!!! Ok...enough of that rant for this game. Tillman and Paul Williams made some stand out plays when needed.

Defensive Backs (C+) - Their above average play and hard hitting throughout most of the game offsets the coverage breakdowns and poor tackling that plagued them in the first half. There is no excuse at all for a 5 yd hitch route to go for a TD (1st Quarter) or for 35+ yd gains (3rd Quarter) when you have a defender in the area of the pass. The TD was the result of the DB giving too much cushion (see Setencich mini-rant) and the other long pass was because McBath couldn't quite break up a pass on a dive. Other than that though, McBath and Garcia had solid (not great) games and did a good job of minimizing the damage in the 2nd half.

Special Teams (A) - Another solid game for Alex Trlica, including a 45 yd FG that could've cleared much more than that. E-Mo had a nice punt return and L.A. Reed was again a stud on special teams with a nice kick return and consistently being the 1st one down on punts/kickoffs.

Overall Grade...B-

Misc Thoughts
- Great crowd and great weather. Attendance was 52,403...just a few hundred people short of the opening game record of 52,991 vs USC in 1979.

- Seeing the students surrounding the Double T in the north endzone was an awesome sight.

- Great to see the Western L.L. recognized at halftime. They received autographed Mike Leach footballs and a great response from the crowd.

- I voiced displeasure with last week's unis but I really liked the black top/white pant combo. It certainly wasn't a traditional look but I thought it looked great. Definitely ok with seeing them wear that again.

UTEP Preview

UTEP (1-0, 0-0) +24
unranked
vs
Texas Tech (1-0, 0-0)
#33 in USA TODAY/Coaches Poll

UTEP Notes

The Miners come to Lubbock looking to continue their winning ways and to get revenge on the Raiders for the heartbreaking 38-35 loss in OT in 2006. Unfortunately for the Miners, gone are Jordan Palmer and Johnny Lee Higgins and they are replaced by QB Trevor Vittatoe (Fr-RS, Euless, TX Trinity HS) and RB Trevor Jackson (Jr-transfer from Oregon). In their season opening 10-6 win vs New Mexico, Vittatoe was 6-21 for 59 yds while Jackson gained 73 yds on the ground, including a 36 yard TD run early in the 4th quarter to provide the final margin of victory for UTEP. While the Miner defense gave up close to 400 yds of offense to New Mexico, they were able to hold them to 40% on 3rd down conversions and the Lobos kicker could only make 2 of 4 FG attempts. This week will be a very big challenge for the Miners as they face the high-octane passing attack of Texas Tech.

Texas Tech Notes

Texas Tech won their season opener on Labor Day in convincing fashion, 49-9 over SMU. Graham Harrell was very efficient in his 3 quarters of play, throwing for 420 yds and 4TD's while rushing for another one. WR Michael Crabtree made a huge impact in his first game as a Red Raider with 12 catches for 106 yds and 3 TD's. Defensively the Raiders looked pretty good defending the pass but mediocore against the run. Staying true to form, they spend most of their time in a base 4-3 defense...and when I say base I really mean BASIC!!! They weren't using a lot of zones and blitzes to confuse SMU and instead preferred to sit back and wait on the run to reach the 2nd level and do their best to "protect the big play." While this worked ok against SMU it will not work in Big 12 play. Unless their is a change in defensive philosophy soon...Tech can expect another 8-4 kind of season where they win the easy ones but aren't able to dominate a good offensive team. That being said...they shouldn't have too much of a problem with UTEP in their home opener this Saturday.

The Miners' "Keys to Victory"

1. Pressure Graham Harrell!!! When he has time to throw, he is very accurate with his passes. SMU was unable to get pressure on him and he picked them apart all game long.

2. Double team Michael Crabtree. Yes he's only played in one game...but it's obvious that he's the biggest threat at wideout that the Raiders have. Force Harrell to check off to Amendola and the crew and you'll be able to prevent the big play. If Crabtree gets the ball in space...look out!

3. Use Jackson to control the clock, move the chains, and keep the Air Raid offense off the field. Establish the tone for the game in the first quarter, and then use motion and play action to open up the passing game. Tech's defense isn't very aggressive, but if you can get the LB's to stay at home on the run then you can find holes in the defense.

The Red Raiders' "Keys to Victory"

1. You're the heavy favorite in this game...so don't get anxious in front of the home crowd. Harrell needs to stay patient in the pocket, go through his pre-snap reads, and continue to execute the offense in an efficient manner.

2. Use the pass to set up the run. When a defense feels overwhelmed by the complexity of the passing game, they will be quick to overlook a good mix of running plays. Get the passing game going early and Woods and Lewis will have plenty of room to run on the UTEP defense.

3. BE AGGRESSIVE ON DEFENSE!!! The Miners have a young QB making only his 2nd start. Blitz him early and often and he will crater. New Mexico didn't blitz that often but exploited Vittatoe's rawness and he won't hesitate run around if he feels pressure and his 1st receiver isn't open. Get used to being aggressive now...and it will pay dividends once Big 12 play starts.

PREDICTION

While last year's game in El Paso was surprisingly close, this one should be out of reach by the middle of the 2nd quarter. Harrell will have another good day throwing and he'll continue to spread it around to multiple receivers all game long as Tech wins in a rout. Count on Harrell for 350+ yds and at least 4 TD's before the backups come in to finish it off in the 4th quarter. The score in this one comes down to how long before Leach calls the dogs off. The score could go as high as 52 or as low as 35 points. I'll be a generous and say that the Tech defense extends their streak of quarters w/o allowing a touchdown to 10 quarters dating back to the 2006 Insight Bowl.

Texas Tech 45

UTEP 6

SMU Game Recap

Texas Tech 49

SMU 9

I won't bore you with the facts of the game other than to say this...Michael Crabtree displayed the skills that we've heard about since he showed up in Lubbock last fall and it was a treat to watch. I can't wait to see what he does over the course of a season and his career in Lubbock. It will be a treat to watch! Now on to a "quick" recap by position group:

Quarterbacks (B+) - Graham Harrell looked very good in the pocket. He showed tremendous patience (thank you OL) in going through his progressions and spreading the ball around the field. He had a few "bad" (read forced) throws...but that's to be expected when you throw it almost 60 times in 3 quarters. Taylor Potts (Eagle1) looked good in his first collegiate game...showing the tremendous arm strength that many of us saw from him during his days at Abilene High. No real complaints on QB play...but a lot of that can be credited to the boys up front keeping the SMU defense off of them. If this were the Texas, BlowU, or A&M game...I would be handing out an A+ for their performance. For now, we'll keep the grades in perspective.

Running Backs (A- for Lewis/B for Woods) - Shannon Woods has done enough to show Leach that he deserves to be the starting back...but it was evident as to why Kobey Lewis (Eagle2) will see plenty of PT this fall. Even though Woods isn't a big bruising back, Lewis serves as a great change of pace back that adds yet another dimension to the Leach system that has been missing. Woods had a nice run but his 6 catches were all but insignificant as one of them equated to 9 of his 11 receiving yards. Despite Lewis' fumble early on, he made a few defenders miss and turned a 5 yd pass into a 20 yard gain. An impressive showing by Lewis in what is essentially his first game (he had 7 carries last year) earns him the higher grade here.

Wide Receivers (A+...but more like A-) - Considering the expectations that many had for this year's receiving core, giving them an A+ isn't out of the discussion. Other than Britton's back-to-back drops in the 3rd quarter, they put on a great display of toughness and willingness to execute in the system. Gone are the days of the self-proclaimed AFROS and their flamboyant ways...and instead the wideouts have returned to a group of tough, sure-handed guys (Amendola, EMo, Walker, etc) willing to work within the system instead of always trying to make a play. Lyle Leong (Eagle3) looked good coming off the bench and looks to be a good fit behind Crabtree. And oh yeah...that Michael Crabtree guy is gonna be pretty special.

Offensive Line (A) - Not much to say here. These stats say it all: 0 sacks....win the Time of Possession by 9+ minutes. Any time Tech is leading in ToP...it's going to be a long day on defense for the opposing team. Rylan Reed was SOLID at the left tackle spot and his performance, along with Johnson at RT, will go a long way towards a successful season.

Defensive Line (B+) - They had trouble containing Justin Willis in the early stages of the game but the proper adjustments were made and he was kept in check other than 1 nice scramble. Martin was able to run hard up the gut at times but was kept in check statistically. It sure felt like SMU ran for more than 80 yards on Monday. Assuming that the lack of aggression in play calling is going to continue...the front 4 MUST continue to hold their own (at the very minimum) in Big 12 play if the Raiders are going to have a chance at winning multiple games in the Big 12 South. Though he mainly played in the 4th quarter, Colby Whitlock looked as good as advertised on the interior as he earned a sack in limited playing time.

Linebackers (C) - Their performance on Monday was merely average. Whether it's playcalling or personnel (I tend to lean toward the former) these guys just don't fly to the ball. Their reaction seems slow to read run on a lot of plays and this can't be happening, especially against a running team such as SMU. That being said, they did an admirable job in containing Willis and limiting the big play. The younger guys (i.e. Collier, M Williams, Duncan) are definitely quicker and hopefully they will push for starting spots as the season progresses.

Defensive Backs (A-) - Chris Parker showed why he is a captain of this team on Monday. He blanketed his receiver all game long and made some very impressive pass break ups. The safeties (McBath and Garcia) were solid in run support and very rarely did a running play actually reach them. They were aggressive in closing in on the ball and keeping Justin Willis in the pocket.

Special Teams (A+ for LA Reed, B+ for kicking game) - When a wide receiver delivers a hit so big that he makes Sportscenter's Top 10...then you know he's doing something right. It wasn't only that hit that he made that set him apart on Monday. He was consistently leading the charge down the field and recorded 2 tackles. He also had one nice kick return...so I'll let the return for about 5 yards slide. Britton and Morris each had a good runback and Danny showed that he still hasn't learned the fair catch signal. Trlica's kicks were consistently reaching the 5 yard line and he had 1 touchback. If he keeps that up then nobody in Lubbock will be complaining too much about the NCAA moving kicks back to the 30 this year. LaCour was serviceable....nothing that stuck out in my mind. Compared to some of the punts from SMU, LaCour's low, end over end line drives were rather sad to watch.

Overall Grade...B+

Misc Thoughts

- Good Tech crowd...great Tech crowd enthusiasm. The "Raider Power" chant during the 3rd Quarter timeout that went back and forth throughout the stadium was awesome.

- My first time visiting SMU's stadium (kinda sad since I live 5 minutes away) and I really enjoyed it. Since it's not that big, there's not really a bad seat in the house (see my above photo from our seats about 10 rows from the top). Concession lines on the visitors side are terrible though as they have roughly half the concourse space as can be found on the home side.

- GET RID OF THE WHITE JERSEY/RED PANT COMBO!!! The all white unis have a great, CLEAN look to them. The black/white/red combo just looks bad...so stop doing it.

- To the Aggie that showed up "Maroon'd Out" and coming to sit in the center of the Tech section...what a moron! Oh well...Aggots don't know any better. Nice job running it up against Montana State Ags...

That about wraps up my thoughts on the opening game. Sorry for the length...I've never been known for my brevity. I'll have some other notes and thoughts on the upcoming UTEP game posted this afternoon. Gotta get back to work...