Friday, October 31, 2008

Another week of football...another week of picks

5-4 last week puts me at 10-7 for picks posted on here this season (yeah...only been doing it here for 2 weeks). Anyways...thought I'd sneak this in early before heading off to Lubbock in a little while:

Central Michigan 24 (+2)
Indiana 21

Virginia 20 (-2.5)
Miami 17

Kansas 47 (-9)
Kansas State 35

Texas A&M 27 (-4)
Colorado 17

Missiouri 45 (-21)
Baylor 21

Wake Forest 20 (-7.5)
Duke 7

Florida 44
Georgia 38 (+7)

Florida State 20 (+3.5)
Georgia Tech 21

USC 66 (-46)
Washington 13

Texas Tech 41 (+4)
Texas 38

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Texas Tech vs Texas - Simulation

The weather is perfect, the boys are in black, and it's the game we've all been waiting for!!!

#1 Texas vs #6 Texas Tech

Kirk Herbstreit comments that a game like this will come down to whomever steps up and makes big plays and tonight Micheal Crabtree will be that guy.

The Longhorns win the coin toss and will have the ball first to start the game...

- Quan Cosby takes the opening kick out to the Texas 48 yd line but Vondrell McGee is called for clipping and the Horns will start the drive at their own 21.
- The Longhorns get a first down on the drive but Colt McCoy is stopped a yard shy of another one by McKinner Dixon and the Horns are forced to punt. Texas Tech takes over at their own 36 after a 10 yd return from Eric Morris.

- The results are much different for the Red Raiders as they get a first down but a drive is cut down as Brian Orakpo gets to Graham Harrell on 3rd down to force a punt.
- On 4th down, Jonathan LaCour shanks a punt off his foot and the Longhorns take over at midfield.

- With nobody open, Colt McCoy tries to force a deep ball into Shipley but Darcel McBath steps in the way of the pass for an interception at the 8 and returns it out to the TT 27 yd line.

Texas Tech 0
Texas 0
7:24 1st Quarter

- 3 and out for the Red Raiders. Both teams are playing good defense early on as neither QB is having much time to go through his progression.

- McKinner Dixon with back to back tackles of McGee and Whitaker in the backfield to make it 3rd and 15. However, on 3rd down he hits McCoy late and gives the Horns a 1st down when they would've had to punt.
- 3 straight passes to Shipley...3 straight first downs and a trip to the redzone.
- Tech's defense comes up big though and forces the Horns to try a field goal.

Texas Tech 0
Texas 0

- On the first play of the 2nd quarter, the Longhorns attempt a 35 yd FG from the right hash but Lawrence bounces the kick off the left upright but it just falls over the crossbar.

Texas Tech 0
Texas 3
14:54 2nd Quarter

- Under tremendous pressure on 2nd and long at their own 44, Graham Harrell rolls out to pass...

and finds Michael Crabtree down inside the 5 yard line to set the Red Raiders up with a 1st and goal at the 2.

- Harrell to Crabtree...touchdown Red Raiders!!!

Texas Tech 7
Texas 3
11:44 2nd Quarter

- dink and dunk and dink and dunk and INTERCEPTION Jamar Wall!!! 54 yards...Touchdown Red Raiders!

Texas Tech 14
Texas 3
8:38 2nd Quarter

- Another Longhorn drive that games 30 or so yards...another Red Raider INT. This time it's L.A. Reed going up and making the pick at the Texas Tech 37 yd line.

- Harrell and company waste no time in moving down the field and in 3 plays they're down inside the Texas 30 yd line.

- 4 Baron Batch carries...29 Baron Batch yards...1 Texas Tech touchdown!

Texas Tech 21
Texas 3
1:07 2nd Quarter

- At the end of the 1st half the Longhorns try a 57 yd FG but it's wide right.

Texas Tech 21
Texas 3

Noteable Stats
- Graham Harrell is 10 of 15 for 114 yds and 1 TD
- Michael Crabtree has 3 receptions for 53 yds and 1 TD
- Baron Batch has 7 carries for 37 yds and 1 TD
- Brandon Sesay has 2 tackles, 1 QB sack, 2 tackle for loss, and 1 INT
- Darcel McBath has 6 tackles, 1 INT, and 2 pass deflections
- The Swarm has 6 tackles for loss, 3 INT's, and 1 TD.
- Colt McCoy is 11 of 17 for 95 yds and 3 INT's

---3rd Quarter---

- On 3rd and 10, Baron Batch takes a screen pass at his own 22 and runs all the way down to the Texas 16 yard line.
- First and goal at the 1 yd line, Tech fakes the inside run and Harrell rolls out to pass. He's got Lyle Leong open but Gideon steps in front of the pass and takes it back to the UT 7 yd line.

Texas Tech 21
Texas 3
11:42 3rd Quarter

- McCoy gets the Longhorns out to the 35 yd line but the drive stalls and they have to punt.

- Harrell and Batch lead the team down to the Texas 30 but a costly interception at the 10 yd line on a ball intended for Crabtree ends the drive. Same score...3:49 left in 3rd quarter.

- This is just a weird play...Colt tries to running, there is holding on the play, then Colt tries to throw...and Jamar Wall takes it back 30 yds for a TD.

Texas Tech 28
Texas 3
2:21 3rd Quarter

- Texas goes 3 and out and Tech gets the ball back before the end of the 3rd quarter.

- In 5 plays, the Air Raid gets down to the 22 yd line at the end of the 3rd.

---4th Quarter---

- The Red Raiders line up for a 39 yd FG attempt to start the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, Donnie Carona misses wide right and the Longhorns take over.
- Texas goes 3 and out and gives the ball back to Tech with about 11 minutes left. However, Tech goes 3 and out as well and then LaCour shanks another punt (for some reason I can't punt all of a sudden) and the Horns have the ball at the TT 30 with about 10:24 left on the clock.

- After a sack of McCoy on 1st down, Colt finds Ogbonnaya in the flats, he breaks a tackle and goes 33 yards for the Texas touchdown.

Texas Tech 28
Texas 10
9:52 4th Quarter

- Wow...a surprise onside kick and the Horns get it back at midfield!!!

- 12 yd run for McGee and then an 18 yd pass has them down to the 20 yd line.
- McCoy finds Malcolm Williams on a deep post for another Texas TD. 2 pt conversion is good and we've got ourselves a ball game!

Texas Tech 28
Texas 18
8:48 4th Quarter

- Harrell gets too much air under a ball to Morris on a deep crossing route and it's picked off. Texas in business at the TT 47 yd line.

- Tech's defense forces a 4th and 1 but Vondrell McGee JUST gets past the marker to keep the Longhorns in business with under 6 minutes to go.
- On 3rd and short, McCoy rolls out and finds the TE formerly known as Blaine Irby down at the Tech 2 yd line and it's 1st and goal with under 3 minutes left.

- It only takes 1 more play as Ogbonnaya takes it in from 2 yards out.

Texas Tech 28
Texas 25
2:08 4th Quarter

- Texas Tech will start at their own 27 yd line with a 3 pt lead and 1:58 left on the clock. Both teams still have all of their timeouts.
- Two runs and a short pass and the Red Raiders will give the ball back to the Longhorns with just over a minute left and Texas still having 1 timeout.
-LaCour gets off a great punt this time and Texas has to call for a fair catch with 1:07 left on the clock and the ball at the Texas 24 yd line.

- Poor clock management by McCoy and Mack combined with great pressure from Tech's defensive line...and the Horns don't even sniff field goal range. Jamar Wall bats down the final pass of the game at the 20 yd line and this one is in the books...

Texas Tech 28

Texas 25

FINAL STATS (Tech...Texas)

Total Offense...400...417
Passing Offense...28 of 41 344 yds 1 TD 3 INT's...38 of 49 375 yds 2 TD's 4 INT's
Rushing Offense...18 carries 81 yds 1 TD...33 carries 52 yds 1 TD's

Graham Harrell - 28 of 41 344 yds 1 TD 3 INT's
Colt McCoy - 38 of 49 375 yds 2 TD's 4 INT's

Baron Batch - 17 carries 76 yards 1 TD
Vondrell McGee - 19 carries 28 yards

Baron Batch - 7 catches 115 yds
Michael Crabtree - 7 catches 102 yds 1 TD
Shannon Woods - 5 catches 72 yds
Eric Morris - 5 catches 44 yds

Jordan Shipley - 9 catches 81 yds
Vondrell McGee - 6 catches 56 yds
Quan Cosby - 8 catches 68 yds

Brian Duncan - 12 tackles (3 TFL) 1 sack
Jamar Wall - 7 tackles (2 TFL) 1 sack 2 INT's 2 TD's
Marlon Williams - 8 tackles (4 TFL)
McKinner Dixon - 7 tackles (3 TFL) 1 sack

Tech Defense - 16 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 4 INT's, 2 TD's

Monday, October 27, 2008

I like numbers...breaking down Tech vs Texas

NOTE: All numbers are for Big 12 Conference play only

Let's play with numbers for a few minutes kids:

Scoring Offense:
Texas Tech - 50.2 pts (1st)
Texas - z41.8 pts (3rd)

Rush Offense:
Texas Tech - 130.5 yds (7th)
Texas - 161.5 yds (3rd)

Pass Offense:
Texas Tech - 410.5 yds (1st)
Texas - 329.5 yds (3rd)

Total Offense:
Texas Tech - 541 yds (2nd)
Texas - 491 yds (3rd)

Pass Efficiency:
Texas Tech - 175.7 (1st)
Texas - 174.9 (2nd)

Offensive 3rd Down Conversion %:
Texas Tech - 66.0% (1st)
Texas - 65.5% (2nd)

Red Zone Offense:
Texas Tech - 90% overall and 80% TD's (11 rush TD's and 13 pass TD's)...(2nd)
Texas - 87.5% overall and 75% TD's (13 rush TD's and 5 pass TD's)...(5th)

Time of Possession:
Texas Tech - 30:12 or 50.33% of game (4th)
Texas - 36:02 or 60.o6% of game (2nd)

Offensive Category Totals:

Texas Tech Offensive Aggregate - 19
Texas Offensive Aggregate - 23

Survey Says...Texas Tech by 4

Scoring Defense:
Texas Tech - 26.2 pts (4th)
Texas - 26.0 pts (3rd)

Rush Defense:
Texas Tech - 102 yds (3rd)
Texas - 86 yds (1st)

Pass Defense:
Texas Tech - 245 yds (2nd)
Texas - 280.2 yds (5th)

Total Defense:
Texas Tech - 347 yds (1st)
Texas - 366.2 yds (3rd)

Defensive Pass Efficiency:
Texas Tech - 133.2 (2nd)
Texas - 145.7 (5th)

Texas Tech - 9 (3rd)
Texas - 13 (2nd)

Defensive 3rd Down Conversion %:
Texas Tech - 43.8% (3rd)
Texas - 44.4% (5th)

Red Zone Defense:
Texas Tech - 92.9% overall and 71.4% TD's (9th)
Texas - 81.2% overall and 68.8% TD's (5th)

Defensive Category Totals:

Texas Tech Defensive Aggregate - 27
Texas Deffensive Aggregate - 29

Survey Says...Texas Tech by 2

Now take away from this what you will...and by Saturday night the only number that will matter is on the scoreboard. Also remember that UT's competition over the first 4 games has been better...but don't forget that 3 of Texas Tech's 4 games were on the road including 2 trips up to Kansas.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Carry On Our Wayward Raiders...

and leave no peace in Kansas when you are done! I've got a few minutes before heading to a christening at let's throw a few picks out there. I was 5-3 last week if memory serves me right so hopefully dumb luck will hit me again. All lines are as of this morning:

Texas Tech 42 (-1)
Kansas 34

Minnesota 27 (-2.5)
Purdue 21

Boston College 21
North Carolina 34 (-2.5)

Central Michigan 34 (-4)
Toledo 23

Nebraska 34
Baylor 24 (+14)

Texas 45 (-12)
Oklahoma State 28

TCU 24
Wyoming 14 (+31)

Alabama 17
Tennessee 14 (+6)

USC 34
Arizona 20 (+14)

Saturday, October 18, 2008

A&M drive-by...

Thought I'd throw out a few picks (with the game spread listed next to the team I'd play) before the game gets started:

Texas Tech 42
Texas A&M 24 (+21)

Wake Forest 23 (-1.5)
Maryland 16

Oklahoma State 47 (-17)
Baylor 24

Oklahoma 45 (-19.5)
Kansas 21

Buffalo 17
Army 10 (+11)

Penn State 38
Michigan 14 (+25)

Texas 41 (-4.5)
Missouri 31

Arizona 31 (+3)
Cal 27

Saturday, October 11, 2008

a W is a W...

is a...

Texas Tech 37
Nebraska 31

Friday, October 10, 2008

The last time Nebraska came to Lubbock...

this happened...

Here's to another Husker beating in 2008!

My prediction:

Texas Tech 48
Nebraska 24

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Big 12 Roundtable, Week 5

Well I'm waiting on a call back to fix my main work I've got a few minutes to say hello to those in the blogosphere. I'll get things started today with my thoughts from this week's Big 12 Roundtable, courtesy of the fine folks over at Burnt Orange Nation:


#7 Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0)


Eastern Washington
W, 49-24
@ Nevada
W, 56-14

Offensive MVP: Shannon Woods, RB and Baron Batch - Woods has seen himself go from multi-year starter, to scout team, to off the team, to graduating in 3 years, to back on the team, and back to the starter role...all in less than a year. He saw most of the carries in the first 2 games but Baron Batch has continued to show that he's healthy and ready to run and has seen increased carries. The 2 have combined for 515 yds on 75 carries (6.9 ypc) and 9 TD's through the first 4 games. Woods is the better inside runner (and the #1 pass blocker) and gets most of the goal line touches (see his 7 TD's) but Batch is a great spark off the bench and in 2-back sets that is a threat to create a big play every time he touches the ball (9.1 yards per touch). If the Red Raiders are make a serious run at the Big 12 title this year, it will be in large part thanks to the running backs for keeping defenses honest against the Air Raid.

Defensive MVP: McKinner Dixon and Brandon Williams, DEs - For a team that failed to get pressure the QB under former DC Lyle Setencich, Dixon and BWill have been set free with Coach Ruff at the helm. Combining for 8 sacks so far, they lead an improved Red Raider D-line that is finally 1) pressuring the QB and 2) allowing the LB's to make plays (2 of the top 3 tacklers are LB's which didn't happen in recent years). The defense exhibited a bend but don't break mentality as the offense struggled at Nevada...and they'll need to have AT LEAST that same mentality against the immensely talented offenses in the Big 12 if the Red Raiders are to win 10+ games this year.

Big 12 Schedule - at Kansas State, vs Nebraska, at Texas A&M, at Kansas, vs Texas, vs Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, vs Baylor.

Projected Big 12 Finish: 6-2, 2nd, South Division - Tech will start the Big 12 3-0 and demolish the aggies at Kyle Field. However, the 2-6 post-Aggie slump will move to 2-7 as they fall 34-30 at Kansas. After a decisive 45-31 victory over Texas in Lubbock...they'll find themselves at 9-1 and ranked #6 in the country as they travel to Norman. Win this game...and you're booking a ticket to Kansas City. Unfortunately, the Sooners step up big with 10 points in the 4th Quarter and win this won 31-24 on a late Bradford to Johnson TD pass.

2. This might be the best offense that the Pokes have had since Rashaun Woods (one of the Top 3 college WR's I've ever seen) was leading them to the Cotton Bowl. They're #1 in rushing, #3 in scoring and #4 in pass efficiency. One thing that's overlooked is that their defense is 42nd in the country (5th in the conference). At this same point last year, they were 101st in the nation and 10th in the conference. Attribute that to whatever you want, but the Cowboys are definitely a team of interest in the Big 12 South and won't be an easy out for anybody. Unfortunately, they play @ Mizzou, @ Texas, and @ Texas Tech before finish with the Sooners at their schedule will likely be their downfall this year.

3. Bob Stoops. Unlike any other coach in the Big 12, he KNOWS how to win Big 12 Championships. Also, he's been able to continually reinvent his team to fit his personell. Leach used to work under him at OU and Seth Littrell (RB Coach) is a former team captain for OU's MNC team of 2000, so he'll have some familiarity with the offensive scheme and somebody on the coaching staff. Now just give us back Leach for the BCS game! :)

4. I'm torn between Daniel and Bradford. Daniel is definitely a better leader and has spent a lot more time in a spread offense that has taken a few pages out of the TT playbook so despite my personal disdain for him, I'd have to go with Daniel.

5. You see I'm torn here...because I'm really not a fan of the 2008 ACL lineup. Can I choose from the 04 or 05 lineup maybe? Ok, I'll go with Eli Young Band. They're fairly new to the scene but for those tied in with the Texas Music (Country/ it whatever) scene then you've known of them for a while now. They've made the rounds and continued to earn respect throughout the industry. They're latest album (Jet Black & Jealous was released in go pickup a copy) is a big step in them becoming a player on the national stage. However, they're not quite there yet. At the end of the day, their music is too good to not catch on across the country so they'll have their day in the sun soon enough.

6. Answer all of the following in no more than two sentences:

(A) Conference's best quarterback? Sam Bradford makes it look too easy. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell make you wonder how the hell they didn't end up playing for one of the Big Boys in college football.
(B) Conference's best offense? Missouri. Maclin and Daniel bring the star power but TE Chase Coffman steals the show.
(C) Big 12 South winner? Oklahoma
(D) Big 12 North winner? Missouri
(E) Big 12 champion? Oklahoma. Until Mizzou's defense shows that they could do anything to slow down the boomers, I'm going to stick with the safe pick.
(F) Big 12 team you would adopt as your favorite if forced to abandon your own? Nebraska if I wanted to go out of state. Texas because it would make things MUCH easier for me on the homefront! ;)
(G) One prediction that might surprise the rest of us? A&M WILL beat Baylor...damn it I can't lie to myself like that just for the sake of creating a surprise. I'll go with this...Texas will give up 100+ points between the OU and Mizzou games.