Saturday, September 13, 2008

Texas Tech vs SMU - Simulation

Well this has been a frustrating time trying to put this game together. Even with Ike just barely reaching Dallas...my power has flickered off/on a few times and it's just enough for the PS3 to cut off. I've run 2 simulations of the game...and the furthest I got was Tech 22 SMU 3 middle of the 2nd quarter. I went ahead and ran a full "quick sim" of the game (one w/o pics) and I came up with a final of Texas Tech 59 SMU 13. I like that pick as it covers the spread, puts the game over 69 points, and it means that Tech probably had a good day on offense so maybe the fans will stop their bickering for at least 1 day.

Ok...off to have a few beers, root for my picks, and get ready for another romp of the Ponies.

Below is what I blogged from the simulation when my power cut off:

The temperatures are in the low 60's, the rain is coming down hard, the wind is out of the southeast at 15 mph...so let's play some football! Much like the last time SMU and Texas Tech met up in Lubbock (2006), the weather is less than desirable for this matchup. The Red Raiders come in as the heavy favorite, with the Vegas line currently having them at 37 point favorites. Personally, I'm setting the # of passes between the two teams at over 100. Something tells me that's a safe number. SMU will get the ball to start the game so let's get to it...

1st Quarter

- The Ponies have definitely taken a play out of the Eastern Washington playbook asthey've come out throwing all sorts of screens and hitches as Mitchell stars the game 6 of 7 and leads the Ponies into the endzone. Wait...holding on DeMyron Martin and now it's 1st and goal at the Texas Tech 20.

- On 3rd and goal from the 12, Marlon Williams breaks up a pass to an otherwise wide open WR and Mustangs settle for a FG.

SMU 3 Texas Tech 0 10:52 1st Quarter

-I know it's random, but Kirk Herbstreit commented that, "This (Texas Tech) offense has been waiting all week to get back out on the field and show what they're made of." A nice, subtle reference to the Nevada game.

- SMU brings a lot of pressure on Tech's first drive and while they don't get to Harrell...he can't get in an early rhythm and it's 3 and out for the Air Raid. SMU takes over at their own 25 after a nice punt.

(EDITORS NOTE: Despite my best efforts, the game keeps lining up Jamar Wall at slot WR instead of Detron Lewis. I've decided to take over control of the offense and this keeps Wall out of the game. The defense will still be played by the CPU.)

- This time the Air Raid moves right down the field in 6 plays and Harrell finishes off the drive with a 10 yd TD pass to Adam James.

(picture)

Texas Tech 7 SMU 3 6:04 1st

- Brandon Sesay is playing like a man possessed early on. He and Rajon Henley are beating their opponent on a consistent basis and have been VERY close to getting to the QB.

- On 3rd and long, Daniel Charbonnet steps in front of a Bo Levi Mitchell pass and Texas Tech takes over at the SMU 23 yard line after a nice return.

- 3 pass completions later...and Graham Harrell hooks up with Shannon Woods from 7 yds out for another touchdown.

(picture)

Texas Tech 14 SMU 3 2:10 1st Quarter

- This time Sesay bats Mitchell's pass up in the air but he can't hol on to the ball for the INT and it falls harmelessly to the ground.

- SMU is driving again and Mitchell is 13 of 19 for 121 yds and 1 INT at the end of the 1st Quarter. To compare, Harrell is 10 of 11 for 97 yds and 2 TD's.

2nd Quarter

- Somebody must've run the wrong route because the only guy within 10 yards of where Mitchell threw this pass was Brian Duncan.

(video)

- Just like last game, Harrell finds Michael Crabtree for a long TD pass. This one is good for 71 yards. A bad snap on the extra point...but Potts picks it up and finds Adam James wide open for the 2 point conversion.

Texas Tech 22 SMU 3 12:21 2nd Quarter

- After another failed SMU drive, Tech takes over in good field position. Unfortunately, Shannon Woods is hurt on the first play of the drive (bruised ankle) and the Red Raiders go 3 and out.

- Brian Duncan and Daniel Charbonnet ALMOST get in to block a punt but the ball is just out of reach...

(picture)

1 comment:

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